The Hill obviously thinks that local fund raising is an important test of strength. I am actually beginning to think that Dean will win NH. He will probably get an enormous number of crossovers from people who voted for McCain in 2000.
It now appears that Dean is leading in California:
story.news.yahoo.com
Dean Leads Democrats in Calif., Poll Says
Tue Jul 22, 9:09 AM ET
By BETH FOUHY, Associated Press Writer
SAN FRANCISCO - Former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean and Sens. John Kerry and Joe Lieberman (news - web sites) are bunched together in the top tier of Democratic presidential candidates in California, according to a new poll.
Dean was favored by 16 percent of those likely to vote in the state's Democratic primary next March, according to a poll released Tuesday by the nonpartisan Field Research Institute. He was followed closely by Kerry of Massachusetts at 15 percent and Lieberman of Connecticut at 14 percent.
Support for Dean in California has more than doubled since the last Field Poll. In April, Dean was favored by just 7 percent of likely Democratic voters, far behind Lieberman's 22 percent and Kerry's 16 percent.
The poll, conducted between July 1 and July 13, surveyed 1,040 registered voters by telephone and had a 5 percentage point margin of error.
It found that 33 percent of likely Democratic voters were still undecided.
Dean has emerged as a leading contender for his party's presidential nomination since releasing his latest fund-raising figures earlier this month. Dean stunned political observers after announcing he had hauled in $7.6 million in the second quarter, more than any other Democratic candidate.
The poll reported that just 7 percent of likely Democratic voters favored Missouri Rep. Dick Gephardt (news - web sites) — compared to 12 percent in April. North Carolina Sen. John Edwards (news, bio, voting record), who has shown prodigious fund-raising talent but has struggled to break out of the pack, was favored by just 4 percent of likely California voters.
Florida Sen. Bob Graham (news, bio, voting record), Ohio Rep. Dennis Kucinich (news, bio, voting record) and civil rights leader Al Sharpton followed with 3 percent; former Illinois Sen. Carol Moseley-Braun had 2 percent support.
The poll found Dean's support strongest among men, college graduates and people who call themselves "liberal." Kerry polled best among voters over age 50, college graduates and those living in the San Francisco Bay area.
Meanwhile, the poll showed President Bush (news - web sites)'s hopes for re-election have sagged a bit in California. About 46 percent of the state's registered voters said they were inclined to re-elect Bush, compared to 44 percent who said they were not inclined. Ten percent were undecided.
The numbers reflected findings released last week which showed Bush had a job approval rating in California of just 49 percent — his lowest level since the Sept. 11, 2001 terrorist attacks.
No Republican presidential candidate has won California in a general election since 1988, and Democrats have practically no hope of winning the presidency without carrying the state's 55 electoral votes — about one-fifth of the 270 total needed to capture the White House. |
