With the identification of the "charred" bodies to still be made, we'll have "wait and see". The bodies may well be Saddam’s sons, but these chickens have been counted too many times to "jump the gun" again. Prior to the war, I had not foreseen Saddam as a pseudo-jihad guerilla leader. Only as Baghdad was encircled, did a longer term guerilla strategy start to become a possibility to me. That’s when I first saw the possibility of a resistance with a strong Saddam component. This meant, the resistance to the American occupation was stronger sooner than I had anticipated.
The word from Bremer et al is the resistance is overwhelmingly Saddam loyalists. And the theory is these Baathist loyalist will “give up the fight” with the capture or death of Saddam. This cousin of Rosy (Scenario) is (IMO) just part of the neo-con fantasy. It allows them to retain their earlier hegemony fantasy in spite of some “unexpected” realities “on the ground”. Because Saddam & Co. are (IMO) ill suited to lead a guerilla. war, their old habits (like retiring to a comfortable villa) may lead to their eventual death or capture.
But to what extent is Saddam (or anyone) currently” leading” the guerilla resistance? I fear the problem goes much deeper into the cultural fabric of Iraq. Surely, I believe Saddam supports the resistance, and will “lend a hand” where he may have some influence. But, I view his recent tapes as the effort of a politician “to get out in front” of a growing, broadly based, mosque sanctioned movement.
The resistance (both domestic and from “foreign jihadists”) that I did anticipate, has already begun, and is growing. Whether the “coalition” forces “get Saddam” or not, I believe the “share” of the resistance attributed to Saddam loyalists, is likely to decline. If I’m right, by next summer, the resistance will have spread - certainly to the south. The northern Kurdish area? That depends on how we treat Turkey. Too many “concessions” to woo the Turks, will alienate the Kurds. So we’ll have to wait for the northern scenario to unfold.
Meanwhile, the mission is to “get Saddam”. IMO, Saddam is of questionable current significance, and (again IMO) likely to be of less future significance. If American troop deaths continue unabated after a Saddam capture/death, what will then be the new theory?
JMO
lurqer |
