Hello Nat, <<It is estimated China now produces more than 20% of the world's refrigerators, 25% of its washing machines, 30% of its air-conditioners and televisions, 50% of its cameras and 70% of the world's metal cigarette lighters>>
I figured that ...
Message 18105328
October 11th, 2002
Hello Hugh, << Those of us with non-USD cash and gold keep waiting for the crash in the USD>> Currencies? Hold a bit of each, and shuffle as they grind against each other.
I suspect that the big picture frame has been constructed already and we can see its outlines very clearly. What remains to be spotlighted is the picture itself, with all its gory details. I suspect that:
(a) The US will still, due to its debt powered locomotive role, remain the consumption capital of the world, and forced to remain there until its balance sheet is totally ruined and its boomer retirement completely cancelled by the fact that all the world will competitively devalue against the USD and cycle back the trade dollars with gusto, buying assets and liabilities, collecting returns off the backs of retirees wannabies working 60 hour weeks;
(b) The US will export soldiers to keep the peace until overwhelming exhaustion;
(c) Japan will continue to bleed productive capital and passive wealth, supported by old folks’ bank accounts and domestic companies looking for a globalization edge, via outward bound foreign direct investment, depreciation, devaluation, and portfolio flight;
(d) China will continue to aggregate capital, invest in infrastructure, do structural reform, and build factories, until all productively employed at better than current domestic pay rate but lower than international compensation scale;
Chugs, Jay |
