Comments on "Securing the Gulf" by Kenneth M. Pollack:
<The sweeping military victory in Iraq has cleared the way for...>
Big assumption, there. If it turns out our victory isn't sweeping, or isn't even a victory, then everything else he says is moot.
<America's primary interest in the Persian Gulf lies in ensuring the free and stable flow of oil from the region to the world at large.>
Not promoting democracy. Not making sure no villages get gassed. Not terrorism. Not even non-proliferation of nuclear weapons.
<As for Iran, according to the latest estimates of U.S. intelligence and even of the International Atomic Energy Agency, its nuclear program has gone into overdrive...>
He doesn't state the obvious reason why the Iranians are so keen to get nuclear weapons: because we put them on our Hit List, and our soldiers surround them on every border.
<Washington has consistently, and probably correctly, been much more concerned with proliferation by its enemies (such as Iraq and North Korea) than by its friends (such as Israel and, to a lesser extent, India).>
It's always refreshing, to read an honest Realist, rather than a dishonest NeoCon. He doesn't pretend that our actions in the region are for the benefit of other nations. And he ackniowledges the double standard.
<In particular, it is not clear that the hard-liners will fall before Iran has obtained nuclear weapons.>
And not clear, that the post-clerical government must be pro-American.
<Iran's hard-liners maintain power in part by stoking popular fears that the United States seeks to rule the country and control its policies>
A not unrealistic fear, given their history.
<Tehran appears to want nuclear weapons principally to deter an American attack. Once it gets them, however, its strategic calculus might change and it might be emboldened to pursue a more aggressive foreign policy.>
Or it might just use nukes for deterrence. Where does this phantom menace come from? It is the US, not Iran, who sends soldiers into Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the Gulf States, Afghanistan, and 60 other nations. It is the U.S., not Iran, who has a doctrine of preventive war and serial Regime Change. He raises an unreal fear, to justify his own nation's "aggressive foreign policy".
<Terrorism and internal instability in the Persian Gulf are ultimately fueled by the political, economic, and social stagnation of the local Arab states.>
He disclaims all American responsibility for this, ignoring all the evidence of our support and identification with so many of those ineffective and unpopular governments. |
