John, tell me your thoughts on this
From Aaron Task's column tonight @ the street.com:
"Wednesday's gains notwithstanding, the market looks 'vulnerable' in the short term, Yang declared, citing Tuesday's close of 20.98 by the CBOE Market Volatility Index. (The VIX fell another 2.6% to 20.44 Wednesday, its lowest close since May 23, 2002.)
Of 18 prior occurrences in the past four years when the VIX initially closed below 21, the S&P 500 was down 14 times a week later, with an average loss of 2.2%, he reported. Recent examples include April 19, after which the S&P fell 4.3% in the ensuing week, and May 23, after which it shed 2.7%. (Of the four occasions the index rallied, the average gain was 0.5%. But that average is skewed by a 1.1% advance in 1999.)
'Accordingly, Wednesday's session appears to be a good time to square up long positions and begin anticipating a likely selloff,' Yang said."
In the above excerpt he speaks of occasions when the VIX initially closed below 21, and therefore I don't understand is comment about 4/19 as it was way above 21 on that day. And then he mentions 5/23 but the SPX kept rising after that (maybe he means 5/16?). And, notwithstanding the 5/23 comment, if he is speaking of times the VIX initially fell below 21, I'm thinking what does yesterday/today's readings have to do with that, as it has been in a 20-25 range for over two months now?
I'm confused by his comments and I don't think my data is bad; what do you read into this? Perhaps I'm missing something obvious.
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