skin, I'm an HUI person. I hardly even look at the XAU anymore.
I believe the big correction in the HUI that went on for so long was an abcXabc and is over, over and out. I've bought in the HUI essentially 2 to 3 times and traded a little about that . 1st time was at 55 area. Sold at 155. Bought in again at 110 and finished out at 120. Been 90% plus pm's since last bottom, and have not trade much since then. Will trade a little further up, as things hopefully start to rotate. Hope I can exit at the next major peak. Have to start watching time fibs I guess.
I do believe the pm future could be tricky, should continue up with this wave we are in, but beyond that I am not sure. Equities, bonds, and dollar are parts of the puzzle and it is hard to predict what each will do. Already commented on bonds. Dollar appears to go down another wave here, followed by a possible large correction. We shall see, and gold/dollar do not have to remain fully coupled.
It seems we are in a somewhat reflationary effort, that will eventually fail. But what that does to gold is unclear. Maybe it makes it go yet higher, as folks see paper for what it is. Don't know.
Here is a LT chart I like to look at. Think EW when you see the little blips as it walks up the BB bands.
sharelynx.net
I lost about 2.5% of my port earlier this year on puts. First option experience for me was unpleasant. I can now see how folks get wiped out. Not a big deal deal for me considering the gains in pm's but I don't like it none the less. I quit fairly early and am glad I did. I don't know what to do about that side of things here. The general markets have me somewhat stumped. Maybe until things become more clear it is best to just stand aside, on that end.
I am sitting on a potentially hung jury, and I am the reason. Not in too pleasant of a mood.
Good Luck. This market remains tuff. |
