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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis
SOXX 296.74+1.8%Nov 28 4:00 PM EST
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To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (10702)7/24/2003 3:56:37 PM
From: Kirk ©  Read Replies (2) of 95487
 
If an upturn starts in force, does anybody here really think that todays EPS estimates will even be close to actual numbers, especially with the way in which most of the companies have cut to the bone?

From Bagley/LRCX Conf. Call

  When           Revenue  Profits  Per Share
March '01 Peak    $465M   $88.6M      48¢
Next Cycle        $385M   $88.6M      48¢

=>Assumes same tax rate and same number of shares.

=>Said will get better with next iteration of model to reflect further cost cutting.

=> Cost savings from out sorceing of mfg.

They are taking market share so they could match peak revenue without the market hitting old highs.

If you assume $2 a share earnings per yr and a pe between 20 and 40 it gives $40 to $80... but currently they estimating 1 to 3¢ for next quarter...

Prices could be a bit ahead of the game but $21.80 is not unreasonable.
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