as opposed to one specific number, i think of a number of scenarios. there is a "Prechter was right" scenario where gold goes to $200. there is a "muddle along" scenario where gold stays where it is, more or less. and there are various degrees of bullish scenarios. we know in the last bull market, which ended in 1980, gold hit something like $850 an ounce, starting from $35 a decade earlier. that's a 24-bagger. since then, gold went into a 20-yr bear market and double-bottomed at $250. a similar rise from there, over a number of years, would put gold at over $6000. very simplistic, of course, but it gives one a reference as to the scale of things. maybe it's worse this time and gold makes it to five figures. not overnight, of course. but over a decade? perhaps.
today it's hard to imagine how extreme it could get, just as it was hard to imagine how bad the market would get in March 2000. even most bears were surprised, and i imagine gold will surprise most gold bulls. |
