Ted, re: economy
Hell, I don't know. I trust the collective wisdom of the market, and it's telling us that things are, at least, not getting worse anymore.
My best guess is that short term, we will see some revenue and earnings growth. Longer term, the liberal policies of the current administration, and the fed, will probably require an equal and opposite reaction. Frankly, this "end of business cycle" recession has been extrodinarily mild, especially when you consider the length of the up cycle. I think the expectations are too high, you don't get anything like the simultanious PC and Internet build out, and the subsequent growth, too often. It's a once in a lifetime thing.
I'm well over 50% cash, waiting for late October. Then I'll get fully invested again, playing the seasonal market. The tactic that is way overdue to backfire.
John |
