Bob,...Zeev and Carl add alot of value to this thread, I would be very disappointed to see either one leave the thread or hold back on their opinions. I highly value their opinions and that goes for all the bears on all the threads. The bulls need the bears to keep things in perspective and vice versa.
I really don't care what motivates them to post their opinions, as long as they are not way out of line or clearly misleading. Readers get a good picture about the state of the company. As long as we have a good balance of bears and bulls, this thread will continue to provide factual information and valuable opinions. Without the bearish views this would turn into a TRKN cheerleading thread, which ends up being useless to all. And frankly, I'm not very pretty in a short skirt with pom poms flailing.
Back to TRKN, if we can translate the "very good" quarter to mean revs in the $30MM area, then that should translate into acceptance of some of TRKN's technology. Remember, TRKN is not starting a new market...they have to take sales away from established players like AMAT, LRCX, TEL, etc. Taking business away from them is a clear indication that there is an advantage to TRKN's technology...otherwise there is no reason for fabs to be wasting time with a minor player like TRKN and create friction with their key suppliers like AMAT. The 3 wins in Oxide etch followed by orders by Major logic fabs in Q2 is a clear indication of superior technology.
At this point one of the major problems of manufacturing at .25u is the oxide etch, the other major players have tools that work, but the yeilds are poor which deteriorate significantly at .18u. I suspect that is what is causing alot of interest in TRKN's oxide etch. And remember, the same tool that does oxide, does almost all other types of etch.....therefore, if oxide etchers make it into a FAB, the rest can easily follow since the maintenance and servicing would be the same. The potential is great...we just have to wait for the execution.
As far as the stock price move today.....it's hard to tell what is going on....with the volume already at about 250K....this stock should have gone up in the $8 range if it was bulls buying. I suspect it may be short covering.
dave
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