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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM)
QCOM 168.09+1.8%Nov 28 9:30 AM EST

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To: qdog who wrote (3315)8/6/1997 12:27:00 PM
From: tero kuittinen   of 152472
 
Hi qdog,

It saddens me to think somebody could construe my posts as "national cheerleading" or, even more sinister, "pall-casting" (I'll have to consult my dictionary on this one, but I can already tell it's something creepy). I'm just trying to inject an alternative viewpoint into the giddy backslapping club also known as QCOM thread. I have no trouble at all with Americans thinking that Nokia is an Asian company... God help us all when it dawns to the Yank consumers the company is actually Finnish. What matters is the company has an excellent international reputation and a global market share nearing 25% this year. So I would think operators are taking a serious look at the Nokia phone.
Qualcomm's global market share is now around 1% in handsets, wouldn't you agree? Your opinion that Qualcomm CDMA phones are second generation and Nokia's upcoming CDMA phone is first generation is misleading at best. Nokia had an integral role in creating the current consumer boom in mobile handsets. The company has a decade's experience in various related technologies, such as displays, batteries and software. Of course these fourth or fifth generation technologies can be lifted from TDMA models and implemented in CDMA models. So the idea that QCOM has some kind of overall headstart in manufacturing CDMA phones is somewhat suspect.
The idea that an upstart company can vault into forefront of handset manufacturing and catch up in display, battery and software sectors all at once simply isn't credible. And I think that QCOM is anticipating this. Why else would they already be warning investors about difficulties in handset sales in the third and fourth quarters?
This was what triggered the latest slide in QCOM's price, remember? Toshiba's CDMA phone already has a standby time five times greater than the Q-phone, which isn't even introduced yet.
One thing that the cut-throat GSM phone competition in Europe has taught is that even one major shortcoming is enough to kill a product, even if it is otherwise just peachy. So you may claim that the American consumers will swallow a 20 hour standby time in a supposedly cutting-edge phone... I say that just this one glitch is enough to hamstring the product, no matter how cute the clam-shell design is.
And I think you missed the point about Nokia 9000. The point was that the product has been in market for over a year. That's a lot better than a dream of a CDMA smartphone sometime in -98 or -99. W-CDMA will enter the picture in 2000 or 2001 and it will make the existing infrastructure solutions obsolete. By the year 2000 CDMA's marketshare will be 20% at best. So it won't rise above niche status before the third generation mobile communication arrives. By then it will be too late for it to start introducing phones handling massive data transfers... it will have missed the bus.

Tero



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