My question is, do you find this ethical, or unethical?
Personally, I think it's a terrific and bright idea, from the perspective of attempting to harness the information-focusing power of markets in order to develop a texture for correlations (if they exist) between expectations and likelihoods where geopolitical events are considered.
But therein, despite the positive and synergistic aspects of the plan, lies what I believe is the rub: the price discovery process will be driven by speculators. Even among those with a political/military background, their guesses will simply not originate from as sound a knowledge base as that of 'experienced' dictators, terrorists, and other such individuals. (Indeed, one might conjecture that those market participants filling the inevitable role of 'noise trader(s)' might fare well, even better, than those who trade with an edge.) Therefore - while the first few years will require some calibration with actual events - it remains to be seen how truly predictive the models are.
Perhaps the guys in Guantanamo and other such miscreants in can become market makers or proposition players - a more constructive application of their 'skills' than making license plates or staring at the walls, to be sure.
LPS5 |
