Hawk, it's true that at present, the economic dislocation from a parting of the ways of the USA and China into isolationist Albanian paradise followed by armed conflict wouldn't be too dramatic [for a lot of people anyway - though I'm not convinced of that]. But as development and integration continues apace, it will be like having a heart and lungs go their separate strategic ways to follow their separate strategic interests. I do like analogies! :-]
Personally, I would find the prospect disturbing. My QUALCOMM shares for a start would not be very valuable. The USA tax base would take a large hit. Americans would find their standard of living dropped like a Daisy Cutter as Made in China ships stopped delivering megatons of goods at very low prices.
Just exactly what strategic interests do you have in mind? Yes, there's Taiwan, but Taiwan and China are so integrated already, like New Zealand and Australia, that independence doesn't have a lot of meaning. Well, maybe not so integrated, but increasingly so.
The world is rapidly integrating and at 4% of the world's population, the USA is too pokey to go it alone, even with quarter of the world's economic activity [or whatever it is]. The USA is the 1980 Apple Computer of geopolitics. The clones and network effect are where the real action is. Choosing an isolationist approach such as Apple's is not the best idea, though when big and tough, it seems easy enough.
Mqurice |
