Jim,
First of all, Pennsaid is fantastic. Period. I hope we
make money as investors on it.
As I understand it AIDs, Chrone's disease, Hepatitis C,
and post operative systitis are all likely on the radar
screen along with the long awaited fungal product.
I know that I could swing a deal to have the fungal product
developed and there's no doubt the money that's there is
huge. It takes many months in regimes of systemic pills
with side effects to find something that works on the nail
while the delivery system with the right molecule would
work locally within an average of ten weeks. Phase one
was done years ago proving the active ingredient penetrates
all three parts of the nail and so can deliver a joint
venture active ingredient effectively.
I realize sweeping statements are simplistic; however, the
details here do not go that deep. I feel this is an
opportunity that is being allowed to grow old on the vine.
The point of your sweeping tour is the opportunities ahead
for WF10 I believe.
Let us hope that Rebecca will actually partner with at least
one and hopefully two of the indications that lay before
us here.
Going it alone is just too dammned hard without wads of
cash, good connections, and solid experience. The WF10
patent expires between 2017 and 2018 depending on the
country. That's a long time.
When we finally survive this period based on solid Canadian
results - we must form a new business plan that is as
much the co-ordination of the efforts of our partners on
multiple fronts as it is pursuing our own interests.
It's my opinion that Canadian sales are on a curve that
will top out above $20 million a year or so on a run
rate somewhere around May 2005 (2 years after launch).
This will equate to something around 4% of the estimated
market at that time.
In the meantime there is no indication of movement on the
FDA or WF10 front. I have no doubt of the hard work behind
the scenes with limited cash - but I simply no longer
believe in the go it alone business model for DMX.
I agree with your viewpoint on FDA if I understand it right
that it will come when it comes. It's unclear why the
phase III in WF10 is taking so long and we can hope that
the structure that OXO chose will produce in the end a
valid and useable phase III. Here I don't have any doubts
about the abilities of WF10 whatever. In fact I'm quite
sure WF10 will be a powerhouse.
I want to make money though and given my opinions of the
reliability of reviewing bodies, I want some major pharmas
driving hepatitis C for WF10 and Chrone's disease for WF10.
I want to see a partnership for the fungal product if there
is still value there.
A new and sensible business plan based on the core
experiences gained from the last years is what's required
here in my opinion. New blood would also be a good idea.
Rebecca doggedly followed the original business plan and
has brought Pennsaid into north america. Mark my words
that this arthritis treatment will be used by millions
for a long time whether we make money off it or not.
Rebecca also brought WF10 to DMX. The potential value
here dwarfs the original patents with Pennsaid.
I hold her in high esteem for her accomplishements just
as I regret her cash decisions over the last 2 years and
her apparent opinions about appropriate public company
communication.
It would be wise now to form a new business plan that
shares gains on many fronts rather than try to keep and
do everything ourselves. In that I suggest speed is more
important than draining the last percent.
In the meantime I don't look at it as much as I once did
(sigh). I understand the possibilities surrounding cash
but I don't anticipate dire events here. It's still a
somewhat tense situation I think it's fair to say based
on being 20% below the recent rights price - but not
something IMO that won't be gotten through.
By the end of the year there will be 3 quarters in the
reports (May, Aug, Nov) and the worst of this period will
be ending as it becomes apparent DMX is moving steadily
towards a cash neutral position.
Barring the long awaited FDA decision though, DMX simply
must raise some serious extra cash. A new business plan
involving partnerships in WF10 on a speedy basis is in
my opinion the right move now. I suspect this has at least
been on the radar - it should now be implemented I believe.
Wolf |
