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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy?

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To: Jack L. Dlugach who wrote (15289)8/6/1997 1:16:00 PM
From: David A. Lethe   of 42771
 
Jack - NOVL can make a little revenue with the Internet, but not hit a home run ... their biggest enemy is their reputation in the internet world. Remember our conversations last year when I was bitchin' that they didn't even offer TCP/IP support out of the box. You actually had to download the software from that new thing-a-ma-jig called the internet. But to do that, you already had to have TCP/IP?!!

People remember this. NOVL still has an awful reputation when it comes to stardards and compatibility on the internet.

1) As a web server, NOVL isn't a player, and won't be as long as Netware is required. Between Netscape's webserver going for $295 - $995, and Apache which is FREE, combined they have about 60% of the worldwide market share.

2) The real money in internet is in SERVICES and CONNECTIVITY HARDWARE - NOT in software. NOVL isn't in the hardware business. If they had a big push in services, then they would risk alienating their entire reseller base. Big risk. Very big risk.

3) If I could advise NOVL, I would say to embrace LDAP as quickly as possible, as it WILL become the transport of the future, with or without NOVL. They need to create some serious value-added functionality to tie together computers and communication.

I used to do a lot of work with the TELCOs, and there is some amazing technology coming out in '98/99 which will tie voice, data, fax, network services, videoconferencing, television, over standard twisted copper dialup lines, and the "telephone" will be able to automatically determine what type of service it is, and route it to the appropriate device. All of it works today, and the telephone companies are buying hardware like crazy to build the infrastructure before they can make these services available to the public. If NOVL could get involved here, then they have a future. If not, then, well... you know the rest.

David
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