industry buzzes about 1,400MHz, 64-bit chip
By Tom Davey
Rumors are buzzing over the specifics of the P7
microprocessor, which is being developed in secrecy between
Intel Corp. and Hewlett-Packard Co.
The 64-bit chip, also known as Merced, will supposedly
scream at a clock speed of as much as 1,400MHz. But
analysts say that although a clock speed of 1,400MHz is likely,
the microprocessor probably won't attain that speed until the
year 2002.
"We expect to see the first systems with P7 in 1999," said
Martin Reynolds, director of technology assessment at
Dataquest Inc., in San Jose, Calif. "But I'd expect it to take
another three years to attain that clock speed."
Several analysts were in sync with Reynold's forecast.
"There have been mentions of gigahertz [1,000MHz] clock
speeds in three or four years," said Dean McCarron, a
principal at Mercury Research, in Scottsdale, Ariz.
Linley Gwennap, editor of Microprocessor Report, in
Sebastopol, Calif., said he expects to see samples of the chip
during the first half of 1998 at around 500MHz, adding that
PCs powered by the Merced should be available to the public
late that year.
Analysts say the Merced should process Unix and x86 code at
a maximum of five to seven instructions per clock cycle--at
least double the efficiency of the Pentium Pro.
Their projected pace of processor performance hikes is
consistent with Moore's Law. Intel co-founder Gordon Moore
stipulated in 1965 that the microprocessor performance would
double every 18 months.
That would argue for a 16-fold increase in chip performance
between now and 2002. A 1,400MHz clock speed is seven
times the speed of the fastest Intel chips currently available.
The slightly more than doubled number of instructions per
clock cycle would give a 1,400MHz P7 in 2002 a 16-fold
boost over today's Pro.
The new chip also should eliminate the distinction between
workstation and desktop systems, analysts say.
In manufacturing the chip, Intel may have to use gallium
arsenide instead of silicon to move the electrons more quickly,
the sources say.
That could become an issue, according to Reynolds, who
added that the substance is expensive and hard to handle. He
said Intel would more likely go to silicon germanium, which
was the substance used in the 1950s to make the first
transistors.
Reynolds also said the aluminum wires in chips may eventually
be replaced with gold, which is more conductive.
Intel and HP officials declined to comment. |
