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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 270.83

+1.0%

Nov 21 4:00 PM EST

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To: Return to Sender who wrote (10739)	7/30/2003 11:39:26 AM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (2) of 95456

RtS, yes - since 2000 VIX has acted differently. I think any parameter that stays the same for a long time [before it spikes] is not very useful for timing the spike. It is reasonable to expect the spike - but when? [sort of like a long narrow Bollinger band] If low VIX means 'complacency' then we must admit 'complacency' can last a long time. If a VIX spike means 'panic' we must remember that 'panic' be definition is always a short lived phenomenon. That's why VIX can stay low for a long time, but never stays high for long. Gottfried

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