Precious and Base Metal Investing Message Board

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Gold/Mining/Energy : Precious and Base Metal Investing

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next

To: russwinter who started this subject	7/30/2003 10:51:09 PM
From: jimsioi	Read Replies (2) of 39344

Gallemore's charts worth a view.... chartingyourfutures.com First the Trend Indicator for Gold has rolled over...Silver's looks about to. Gold's trend indicator and momentum did not achieve the levels of previous rallies in keeping with price and ran up to an important downtrend line. The gap left today at $360 looks significant. Moving average is still headed down. Failure to hold it at $353 would spill the miners in my opinion. The CRB itself has also failed at a major downtrend line with the Trend Indicator at only 50 and momentum negative....The grains are the weight and given their significant oversold levels and first notice day near for August beans the weakness in the CRB could accordingly be discounted. At the very bottom of the list of charts see the dollar with a Trend Indicator now turned up and registering positive momentum. Significant downtrend is overhead which aligns with the 100 ema which has been controlling. Concerned that August may dish out some surprises to those of us feeling so confident and comfortable that the miners' little swoon here would be brief and shallow....Has the rise in interest rates choked off inflationary expectations and associated money flow in favor of the dollar for a while? COTS to be released on Friday will include activity reported today, that for Tuesday. In the last week open interest in GOLD has just exploded...rising 45K contracts or 23% in one week. Rising open interest is usually bullish but in the commercially controlled metal markets I feel it to be less so...Such a surge likely puts the Commercials at 90 net short in GOLD. This is at the low boundary of stopper territory and so far at $367 they look to have done just that. Silver's open interest in the week between reports...pretty much the rally period it so turns out to be, only grew by 21%. I would estimate that the net commercial short position has expanded to nearly 60.K....again if one looks at the COTs graphed - at least near stopper levels. The fact is that the commercials show no fear. They meet the speculative surges in buying with what's needed to stop it about where they want.....at an important trend line in Gold's case. The markets won't go up until the commercials net short position comes down, and it comes down when prices do.....therefore...._____________ fill in the blank with "it'll be different this time"....if you're feeling lucky.. Gold's COTs graphed..... sharelynx.net About the best thing that can be said is that the commercials haven't been pushed to the maximum levels they've had to go to stop the metal market in recent years..On second thought I don't know if that's a positive. If these markets are all so bullish why hasn't investment demand shownup to challenge the commercials at least to the point where Gold's downtrend line could have been broken. OK maybe it will? Looks increasingly to me like early August in keeping with the seasonal will be a period of downward consolidation for metals and miners. Wild card is dollar reaction to reports on Friday....If it's current rally fails, Gold would have a chance of retaining $360, if it rallies I suspect the first day of August will set the tone for most of the month. We certainly will see......

Report TOU Violation

Share This Post

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next