Knowledge helps, but only over the long term. For example, I have
several investments in the biotech area, based on my
knowledge and that of my collegues. For example, IDEC has two very
promising drugs in its pipeline, one in Phase III that may get
approval by the end of the year. Currently, that stock is off from
its high of 32 to about 15. Also, another holding I have is Advanced
Tissue Sciences, which was a start up company of my old advisor's.
They should get approval for their engineered human skin product this
year. Their stock is down to about 12 from a high of 19. Why the
downturn? I guess just loss of faith in the overall biotech market.
This worries me, since if you look back to about 1992, many biotechs
were riding high, then crashed, and some still haven't regained the
same levels. Of course, some, like Amgen, which actually brought
prodcuts to matket increased many-fold. As long as thye approvals
go through as I expect (there may always be nasty surprises!)
eventually the stocks should go back up.
If this is really a cooling off of the biotechs, then we should be
cautious about companies like PRLN, which are probably years away
from approval...unless of course, you have a long-term investment
plan like I do. PRLN is smart in that (1) they have targetted
diseases which have very high profiles (i.e., AIDS and cancer) and
are also to have very speedy approvals, especially if the clinical
trial results are striking, say as the compassionate-use trials were
and (2) they HAVE OTHER SOURCES OF INCOME. This latter point is
critical since they have their Ah-iommunoassay kits to generate
income to keep the stock value higher, and to fund their trials.
They also are supposed to purchase EastWest herbs which will give
them income.
I guess its clear I'm long on PRLN...Good luck and hold tight everyone.
The rest of 1996 may be a very bunmpy ride.
Rick |
