Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT)

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To: TI2, TechInvestorToo who wrote (6609)	8/2/2003 9:07:22 AM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (5) of 25522

Hi TI2, Well first off I'm in Texas.Land of full size everything. GM's truck line is completely new and being very well received so to have GM in Texas is to be lucky to a degree.Our product line is fresh - the better technologically and gaining share. As a general statement our customers have been enjoying these very low finance rates for over three years now.0.0% APR will have been out in the market place for three years this October. Many want to focus on how burgeoning the consumer debt has become.I believe this is not the true story.Most consumers have added debt - but the cost of servicing that debt is either nonexistant or at least very low.This results in very fast equity accumulation. Many of the customers we sold vehicles to back in 2000,have accumulated substantial equity in their trades.Some thinking that rates will increment up want to "Reup" their no finance charge loans for the next 3 years. Although you wont hear it in the News media,95% of the people are working and they are very much enjoying interest charge free new vehicles.New vehicles are also of much better quality and they are repair expense free.Not that things don't still go wrong - they do.Major drivetrain items just last MUCH LONGER. This last July our trucks had: 3000 cash or 0.0% APR 1000 GM loyalty 500 Conquest sales cash(If you were a nonGM owner) 750 If you were military active or retired 1000 if you bought a diesel with an automatic Allison trans 500 Bonus cash Although you have to be a racket scientist to keep it ALL straight - they could stack up to be as much as almost 7,000 grand off. Some of those trucks cost over 40,000 but subtracting 7000 before you start discounting sure does help.GG Vehicles have been in perhaps the biggest deflationary cycle of most products.The fear of deflation has in this case been overplayed. Auto manufacturers have had huge savings from: 1) record low financing rates 2) Moving their procurement and engineering operations to the internet.Literally BILLIONS have been saved.GM led this with their purchase years ago of EDS.They have been credited with quality and marketshare improvemnets.IMHO the huge cost savings of switching to the internet in all they do, has enabled them to take out so much cost they've once again become competitive. It is great story that has quite quietly evolved over the last 10 years. GM and Toyota are truly the two global competitors of auto production.The internet was correctly perceived as the key to winning the globe's need for transportation. I believe this trend will continue to be pervasive in all global industries. The bubble of 2000 will be viewed as just the beginning and most will not realize the nets true contiuous growth has never backed off.The only decline was in the valuations of the creating companies equity prices. This cycle is well on its way to being once again valued and sought after. Intc and Amat led 2 weeks ago to new highs - this last friday Cohu hit a new high.Next week Csco announces earnings.We will see a very nice appreciation of these great companies by next quarter or two at worst. The news media can't get their head out of their critical butts to see the real return to growth is well on its way. Bonds are saying it all right now - they have been the real bubble.Money from bonds and trillions in Money market funds will fuel a huge equities re-evaluation this next year. All of the bearish MOMO players that stay short too long will carry the markets rises to the overvalued once again. Its not a matter of IF it's a matter of WHEN . JMHO Bob

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