The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory

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To: LLCF who wrote (341)	8/2/2003 10:17:03 AM
From: Ramsey Su	Read Replies (3) of 110194

Message 19092252 1. title insurance companies such as FAF and FNF. Since that post, the title insurance did perform accordingly. I have talked to a couple of the people in the business recently and title orders pretty much tanked. Furthermore, they have no clue how much of the current opened orders will close. 2. lenders such as GDW and WM. WM went down but GDW stayed up, which is kind of surprising. Not mentioned in my previous post was CFC, which the market must be using as whipping boy now. 3. MI companies such as MTG, PMI and RDN (if real estate market proves to be bubble, if not these MI companies may actually benefit from slow down). This group is on fire. The street is obviously interpreting the current slow down as good. That would be true if delinquencies and therefore claims remain at manageable levels. We shall see. I do not discuss personal trades nor specifically recommend stocks, long nor short. These forums are great for exchanging some research and ideas so each of us can take appropriate actions that suit us best. Having said that, I think it is highly recommendable to go back and read the earnings releases for all of the above and listen to the conf call replays if they are still available. I am just reading the 10-Q of FNF released yesterday. biz.yahoo.com The y-t-y numbers are astronomical and everything are tied to the real estate markets. I posted this table from the Mortgage Banker's Association before and did not see much reaction. I strongly recommend anyone interested in these sectors to take a long hard look at the actual numbers. The industry has NEVER had a run like this. mbaa.org If we cannot deflate the real estate and refi bubble gently, the hard landing could be very very hard.

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