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Gold/Mining/Energy : Precious and Base Metal Investing
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To: Louis V. Lambrecht who wrote (15544)8/4/2003 10:56:20 AM
From: zinc-man  Read Replies (2) of 39344
 
<<deep fog>>
I too am enjoying this deep fog..:)

I cut my teeth on metal investing 2 days (literally) b-4 the Bre-X debacle... Bought on Friday, news broke on Sunday-.. So, I am looking forward to the upside.

My gut tells me we are in for some interesting times ahead: None of which are excused from world wide economic deltas.

Some thoughts:

1)Revolt in China- According to Ducker, China has had a popular uprising every 50 years since early 1700's. The last one was in the mid 1940's- So, we may be due...
200mm people currently homeless and another 150mm are employed by state agencies soon to be closed..

2) The US is printing a shit load of dollars. When these dollars come back home- hyper-inflation is the likely result. All comm. could enjoy appreciation in this situation.

3) World-wide over production. I personally believe we are in a over-produced environment. The worlds production capacity is growing faster than demand. Until balanced, or at least in a slight deficit, we will see continued pricing pressure on basic material.

4) Graying of the US. The US is in the early stages of population graying. This has occurred in Japan and Great Brit over the past century. When this occurs, consumption of durables, in general, declines. A shedding of 'stuff' begins. Such situation adds to the pricing pressure noted above.

5) Terror events - they will occur. Anything to destabilize the US economy will add to pricing pressure.

6) I see a bull mkt in comm early 05.. ending...?

Just some thing to consider
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