Jobs and the 2004 election... The Econopundit has run his econometric model for forecast jobs growth and the chart forms a... wait for it... dubya!
The best available forecast using the best available numbers says the "jobs issue" will turn against the Democrats during quarters one and two of 2004.
Here's the FM forecast of private sector jobs generated by the US economy from 2000 to 2004 (fourth quarter to fourth quarter).
The first column shows all private sector jobs generated by the economy, while the second column shows these as quarter to quarter gains or losses. (Column three merely expresses these in monthly terms, putting the numbers in the same order of magnitude usually used by politicans and reporters.)
It is column four, which computes a running sum of column two, that is most useful to politicians. This is the running total of "jobs lost" by the administration. In first quarter 2002, for example, it was possible to claim "we've lost 2.4 million jobs since George Bush took office." Those susceptible to the conceit economies rise or fall on week-to-week federal policy are highly influenced by column four.
Which brings us to the point: it looks like all net job losses of the recession will zero out some time in the first two quarters of 2004, with the net job gain picture rapidly reversing itself thereafter. Unforseen events can change this conclusion, but best currently available evidence suggests those willing to round 1.77 up to 2.0 will, by election time, be able to claim the Bush Presidency has "created" 2 million new private sector jobs.
UPDATE: Howard Dean, in his "stand up America" Austin Texas TV ad shown on this morning's MEET THE PRESS: "You know, when you think about it, in the last two and a half years we've lost over two and a half million jobs..." (Factually correct as of last quarter, Russert shortly rounded it up to a factually incorrect 3 million.)
UPDATE II: Invevitably one commentator will try to weigh the "lost" 2.4 million jobs against the "gained" 1.7 million, finding a net loss in this balance. This is of course wrong. In April or May of 2004 all the lost jobs will have been replaced by new ones. The balance is exactly zero at that point. Everything thereafter, thru Spring and Summer, into Fall and the election is a pure net gain in aggregate private sector jobs.
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