First, you are correct in your assumption that the vast majority of traders are buying and holding long term. Second, there are esentially no "odds" in the stock market. A stock will either go up or down, threfore, in the absence of influential information, the odds are 50-50 every day. If one were to place odds historically- the odds are in favor of stock price increases. As far as knowledge and experience goes, that plays only a small factor. If odds were based on these factors than those who have the most knowledge and experience should be the ones choosing the best performing stocks and be rich beyond belief. Even the "experts" are wrong a good portion of the time. Any dumbass who buys, say, IBM or INTC because they are fimiliar with the name is making a good investment; in fact its the same investment made by the knowledgable investor who bothers to research these companies.
As far as Dell goes, based on the recent run-up and high price, I would agree that there is a slightly better possibility that Dell will fall than rise in the near future. But over the past two weeks, Dell is still up (slightly) despite the price and downgrades. Knowledge and experience does not indicate that this should be so. And yes, I also agree that there has been quite a run on techs recently. I sure like it, but who knows how long this can keep up. |
