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Technology Stocks : Silicon Valley Group

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To: Jurgis Bekepuris who wrote (771)	8/6/1997 5:05:00 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	of 2946

Raimondas, Since this is the SVGI thread and it is where I made my only respnse to this report (it was posted on other semi-equip threads as well.), I will start with the SVGI peak estimate of $3.25. I estimate the the peak EPS for SVGI will be in the $8-11 range. I expect the peak revenues of the track and thermco divisions to be in th $300-400M range, up from $200M. I expect the peak revenues of the lithography division to be $1-1.4B (200 * $5-7M). This gives total peak revenues of $1.6B-2.2B. A peak 15% profit margin gives $240-330M in profits and 30M shares outstanding gives $8-11. The $3.25 can be achieved with a 10% profit margin on $1B sales, or $330M/division. Why is SVGL ramping up to a 200 unit capacity if its peak year sales will be 60 Micrascans. The estimate for EGLS also seems low since the orders for this quarter were about $50M and, in the past, they produced $.60+ quarterly earnings on ~$50M revenues. $.75/quarter is only a 25% increase. AMAT has predicted $10-15B revenues early in the next century and $10B by 2000-2002. At the peak, $10-15B should produce $8-12 EPS, not $7.50. LRCX, KLAC, and NVLS peak earnings are just conjectures now so I will not criticize these numbers. Cary

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