Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT)

AMAT 327.03

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Jan 16 3:59 PM EST

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To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (6644)	8/6/2003 8:18:26 AM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (2) of 25522

Good Morning Brian, The end of that article was enlightening.I'm by no means sure of its credibility,but even if it is close. This market has been so drab-so long we've become accustomed to Rally's that we know will always fail(like yesterday).Csco hits their number and shows unusual optimism and still the market sells off?gg When someone asks where will the growth come from - just visualize demand coming from the most populated country on the planet - China. I had no idea that current production in China would supply only 20% of demand of chips - that's the first time I've seen that? As we americans listen to the news medias focus on 5 % unemployed (used to what was considered the chronically unemployable) and the exporting of jobs to China,we must also be aware that a middle class is evolving at a much faster rate than many know.I certainly am not an expert. I do remember when Nixon was the first president to visit China and we Americans were almost in awe to see our president at the Great Wall. Events have evolved very fast and it is a success story. Normal business has been in a long hiatus.Companies have cut back and adjusted tremendously.Top line growth will once again reoccur.China just hints as to where global demand will surface from.Don't forget Africa.In the next 5 years the U.S will transfer much of our oil purchases from the middle east to the many oilrich countries of Africa.This is why George Bush is befriending Africa - just as Nixon did China.The awakening of an entire continent.Assuredly a long term growth story - and they too will educate their middleclass,utilize cell phones and have a young generation learned on laptops and the internet. The long term investor can lose a position due to the grind of a bottom and the fickleness of false starts that only disappoint.These are the nature of a New bull market. What is of least supply and greatest importance is PATIENCE. It hurts to have to even type the word.GG Bob Thanks for all the input - I appreciate your contribution and those of all the well disciplined investors who collectively have helped me hold and build my positions through this most ugly bottom. I'm in the camp of always being optimistic regarding economic growth.The negative cycles must be endured but at the end of the adjustment, a better technology world always has evolved. We are just at the cusp of this re-emergence.Maybe this time I'll get it right and we'll see some back and filling with a sideways consolidation at a higher level. This bottom has had 3-4 new low retests - it should be due for a consolidation - which technically adds strength to the new level of valuation. If this evolves,looking for a final dip/shakeout will be the most exciting event to unfold,as it will usher in the next step up in a strong new valuation level. JMHO Bob

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