SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  
To: quehubo who wrote (24924)8/6/2003 8:36:12 AM
From: jim_p  Read Replies (3) of 206287
 
que,

I'll have to agree with you that it seems absurd to have OSX near 80, but the market today is not the same as is was in the last cycle. 80 today may be like 100 in the prior cycle???

I'm not sure we can expect OSX 110-120 in today's environment???

I don't believe the cycle is over, we're just now playing the current cycle at higher levels for oil and NG prices.

I do believe we will see NG below 2.00 again, but not until the LNG cycle gets in full swing which is at least several more years away. Whenever you have both a time lag to bring the product to market and a very capital intensive sector you will always have cycles. LNG has both very long time lags and is also very capital intensive. The longer the time lag and the higher the capital cost the longer and deeper the cycles will become (i.e. the current power cycle).

The power companies have had some major corrections due mostly to MIR. A lot of us saw MIR coming a long time ago. MIR had other options besides CH-11, but management had no incentive to protect the shareholders and they took the easy way out. The IPP's down cycle has several more years to go. I still believe the best play off the market bottoms in 2002/2003 will turn out to be buying companies like RRI under $2.00 several years from now. Still too soon to buy EP, but their are a few other player worth looking at.

With RRI under 5.00 again, it's a good time for those who missed the first ride to hop on the train. While it will continue to be volatile, it's going to be a very long ride back to reality and beyond.

Jim
Report TOU ViolationShare This Post
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  

HomeMailHotSubjectMarksPeopleMarksKeepersSettings
Terms Of UseContact UsCopyright/IP PolicyPrivacy PolicyAbout UsFAQAdvertise on SI
© 2026 Knight Sac Media.  Data provided by Twelve Data, Alpha Vantage, and CityFALCON News