There is one central and all important global fact which must be realized. The US has grossly over-extended itself BOTH geo-strategically AND geo-financially.
On the global financial front, the Bush Administration is trying to empire build, based only upon the endless borrowing of the savings of other nations. The US demonstrates by this that it does not have the financial means for its military endeavors. It also demonstrates to the rest of the world, which is funding it, that the US can be stopped dead in its tracks by stopping all the money flowing towards it.
This state of affairs is not a policy, it is not even a viable strategy. It is simply a harebrained political enterprise with NO financial foundation under it.
Geo-strategically, the Bush Administration is totally stuck in the sands of Iraq. What is so much worse is the military fact that the US itself does not even have the necessary force structure with which to engage in a sustained occupation solely by its own means. To do that, even with the 16-brigade force currently in Iraq, would require having a reserve behind the Iraq occupation force of at least eight free army brigades behind the forward deployed force as an absolute minimum. Historically, a force array of two brigades forward and one Brigade back in repair, rebuilding, and re-training is viable for quite a while, though not indefinitely. To fully sustain an occupation of Iraq would, historically, require at least a sixteen-brigade forward deployed force, with another twelve to sixteen brigades behind it in reserve.
The US Army does not have those additional twelve to sixteen brigades. It only has THREE! That means that the US army is grinding itself into the ground, slowly but surely. There is no military space or time to rebuild the deployed brigades.
President Bush's Iraqi escapade likewise has no military foundation.
Geo-Political Policy Nonsense:
To place a great nation into even one of the above situations by choice of policy would be a mighty big gamble and one only viable for a short period of time, because the policy is unsustainable over time. But to place a great nation in TWO such policy positions is way past the point of simply being reckless because the unravelling of one would automatically unravel the other. Worse, the rest of the world's governments already know this. They are now making their plans to deal with both of these two global contingencies. Finally, the rest of the world's governments know that it is only a matter of time before this becomes apparent to the general American public.
Political Nonsense:
Across the US, general American public support for the Bush Administration's war and subsequent occupation of Iraq is dwindling slowly and surely. As the climbing costs in both young American lives and in wealth slowly becomes apparent, the American public will turn around politically. After that, it will turn against the Bush Administration itself. To this, the Bush Administration has no real answer.
It cannot now withdraw from Iraq. That would lead to an internal civil war there between the Shiites and the Sunni Muslims and the Kurds in the north, assuring the foreign intervention of both Iran and Turkey. That would lead to a general Middle East war which could draw in Israel. The US cannot call upon the UN which it scorned. It cannot call upon either NATO or a Europe which it insulted by calling "old."
The American political hinterland behind the Bush Administration, is the most fragile of all politically.
If the American people turn against their "leaders" in Washington, then EVERYTHING breaks. |
