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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 328.78

+2.9%

Jan 9 4:00 PM EST

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To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (10922)	8/10/2003 8:52:35 PM
From: The Ox	Read Replies (1) of 95703

I'm surprised that there wasn't more comments or opinions about one of the tables you posted a few days ago, the one that contained this year's vs next years total eps estimates. The estimates at this time last year are basically identical to the estimates we see accumulated today (greater than -$10/share for this year and over +$10/share next year). In other words, last year at this time their estimates were so incredibly far off (by a factor of minus 200%!) that one must seriously question the current view, which is a mirror image of last year. To be off an aggregate of $20/share verifies what we have said on this thread many times, the analysts are totally clueless and their estimates aren't worth the paper their printed on. Where is the rebound? Still a figment of many people's imagination since the current year's eps is lower than last year's figure at this point in the calendar year. To claim that next year's future earnings will show a rebound from -$12 this year to plus $10 next year is a big joke, imo. More likely, the group will be lucky to break even or show a slight profit. This in itself would be a large jump in the right direction. More attention should be paid to how utterly useless the investment community's forecasts are in actuality. On a more technical view, I'd like to see this slide in the SOX get back to the 330-340 range, as I would view this as a healthy backfill process and I'd be inclined to dip my toe back in the water around this area. I hope everyone's trades have been going according to plan, lately. mh

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