Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch Message Board

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next

To: lurqer who wrote (25045)	8/10/2003 9:30:00 PM
From: t2	Read Replies (2) of 89467

But the general market valuations in '83 were nothing like the bubble valuations of '29, '66 or '00. The first two certainly led to secular bears. The last one has yet to get to "fair value". I used to think the valuations this time around had to be adjusted for the fact that we have low interest rates. Lately, I came to the realization that my assumption of low interest rates is invalid. If international investors stopping US bonds, rates will shoot up. If China decides to adjust the exchange rate..lookout! Just thinking about it..how long will they keep funding American deficits...not for long, IMHO. The recent move in bond market was just an indication of what is going to happen down the road...and we might get a 1987 type stock market drop in the coming in the next few months if bond yield start up sharply again. Nothing in tech to stimulate demand; no new Windows launch...that is usually the best way to stimulate short term demand. The next bull markets probably has to start after rates have gone up high enough levels.

Report TOU Violation

Share This Post

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next