being part of the establishment, they don't want to take away all of their options.
I got the feeling that they might also be trying to boost their personal status in the hawkish talking head community. The current polarized environment is very conducive to that: the hawks try to out-hawk each other and the doves try to out-dove each other, and a great deal of nonsense emerges from both. The middle ground often gets lost, which is unfortunate, because it’s the place where we’re most likely to find some common sense.
if the Chinese don't do something, they face a Nuclear Japan and Taiwan for sure. And South Korea might build a Nuke also.
I think the Chinese ability to “do something” may be overrated. As I said before, Kim Jong-il is not going to step down because the Chinese tell him to, and I don’t think for a minute that China has any way to force the North Koreans to give up any nukes they may have. They might be able to force an inspection regime, but only after the vital bits have been moved. If we assume that the nuclear capacity is there – and at this point we must – I don’t see any short-term way to force the N. Koreans to give it up.
All the talk about how we can’t take the military option off the table is misplaced, IMO. Whether we like it or not, the option is off the table, and if we pretend that it’s not, we only make ourselves look foolish. As the piece you posted says, a strike is pointless unless we are prepared to face escalation, and we can’t face escalation without full military cooperation from S. Korea. Since the S. Koreans are not inclined to cooperate, and we have no way to force them to cooperate, the option isn’t really there at all. The N. Koreans, of course, can see all these things, and it’s silly to claim that you’re waving a stick when all present can see that it’s really a noodle.
I don’t really think the prospect of a nuclear Japan is that huge a trump card for the Chinese. Neither country has any incentive to attack the other. Taiwan would be another story, but that move wouldn’t be inevitable. The Taiwanese don’t really need a deterrent against Korean attack. I’ve long suspected that the Taiwanese, like the Israelis, have already quietly made that move. They certainly have the technological ability, and the incentive. |
