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Biotech / Medical : biotech binary events

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To: Biomaven who wrote (77)	8/11/2003 9:50:08 AM
From: Icebrg	Read Replies (1) of 295

Peter I believe we can "live" with a tail of 10 %. At the time of the presentation at ASCO there were still 83 survivors. If there is a tail of 10% in the placebo group (i.e. 15 persons), that would still leave 68 getting Neovastat. That is 45 % of the number of persons randomized to that group. And if that is indeed the case it appears as if the "drug" has some beneficial effect. A question is of course at what percentage the levelling out starts. If it starts at 20 % the distribution would be 30 survivors from the placebo group and 53 from Neovastat group. 20 % against 35 %. Neovastat would still appear to give better odds. {I will have to take a crash-course in statistics if I want to continue these speculations) The situation is however complicated by the fact that the primary end-point is a 50 % improvement in the median survival time. Not time to progression or to death for the full group. Erik

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