Running Man Hasn't Won Yet
Don?t believe the CNN-Time recall poll.
By Arnold Steinberg - NRO
- Arnold Steinberg is a California political strategist and pollster.
The word is that Arnold Schwarzenegger has the race all locked up.
Don't believe it.
Governor Gray Davis may indeed be recalled. And Arnold Schwarzenegger may in fact become governor. But neither outcome is preordained.
The CNN-Time poll released this weekend has received international coverage. It shows the recall comfortably ahead, and Schwarzenegger clearly out in front. The Terminator already is at 25 percent, compared to Democrat Cruz Bustamante at 15 percent, Republican Tom McClintock at 9 percent, Republican Bill Simon at 7 percent, and independent Arianna Huffington, Republican Peter Ueberroth, and Democrat Larry Flynt tied at 4 percent each. Democrat Garamendi, also at 4 percent, has already dropped out of the race.
But here's why those numbers are off the mark.
First, the recall itself: The same poll shows respondents about evenly split on whether the recall is a good idea. And it shows 39 percent of Democrats favoring the recall, a percentage unlikely to hold as Democrats go partisan.
It's true that Davis is profoundly unpopular. And his negatives are mainly irreversible. But Davis still has an outside chance to defeat the recall on October 7. Besides, if a federal court postpones the special recall election to coincide with the March Democratic presidential primary, Davis probably would be retained.
There never was a strategy for the recall. Absent the intervention (i.e., money) of U.S. Congressman Darrell Issa (R.), the recall would have fallen flat. Nor was there ever serious research behind the effort. Indeed, the widely leaked results of pro-recall focus groups were based on a dubious premise: that Davis himself would make his case. The focus groups tested videotapes of Davis making arguments against the recall. This is amateurish. Davis is, after all, at issue. If Davis announced that two and two is four, the focus-group panelists would have reacted negatively. In a skillful campaign, anti-recall surrogates will say that Davis is a jerk, but that the recall is a bad idea.
It remains to be seen whether Democrats can portray the recall as a farce. But doing so successfully would help defeat the it. Certainly, no one expects people to vote against the recall because they like Gray Davis.
There's a chance this election could resemble a ballot initiative more than a candidate race. If so, the burden of proof is placed on the "yes" side. In other words, recall proponents seek a change in the status quo. They could be defeated if voters feel that a recall would not be a change for the better; the recall must show light at the end of the tunnel, not simply getting the rascal out.
Second, what about the candidates? The CNN-Time poll was a one-night sample, allowing for a limited sampling, no callbacks. It was taken Friday night ? all the eggs in one basket on the worst evening of the week. No one yet (if ever) can predict the likely turnout of registered voters for this special election, nor their composition. For example, we don't know whether Schwarzenegger will increase turnout dramatically to his benefit, or he'll simply raise the profile of the election, insuring more Democrats who will help Davis.
Nor did this poll allow for the impact of voting by mail. In past special elections, half the vote was by absentee voters. They could be older and conservative, more likely to benefit Bill Simon or Tom McClintock.
Finally, the poll itself was taken in the midst of the euphoria surrounding the Schwarzenegger announcement. It did not even list the political party of each candidate. Thus, Democrats did not know, for example, that Schwarzenegger is a Republican, or Bustamante is a Democrat. Does that partly explain how Bustamante gets 15 percent of the vote in a state where Democrats comprise 45 percent of voters?
This poll is not good news for Schwarzenegger, because it puts him on too high a pedestal. |
