NEWS: Presidency for the Taking: Latest Poll Shows Bush Heading for Disaster
August 9, 2003
Two years ago, things weren't looking so hot for President George W. Bush. Back in the summer of 2001, not only were many still questioning his legitimacy after the Florida electoral fiasco, the economy was already on a deep downturn. So, just barely 8 months into his presidency, Bush Jr.'s approval ratings were just above 50%.
But then as they say, the rest is history. The September 11th catastrophe opened up countries to invade, and never-ending wars on terrorism to wage—and so it seemed the President was on his way to an easy re-election victory.
After being whipped into a frenzy by patriots like Oliver North and Geraldo Rivera over at Fox News (so what if one is a convicted felon and the other a journalist whose claim to fame is a failed search for Al Capone’s treasure), it was hard for us not to love this war.
But good American wars, once begun, need to end quickly if they are to serve the political needs of a re-election campaign. So the President declared an end to major combat in May.
But as Americans, Iraqis, and assorted others continue to die with increasing frequency, it is becoming clear that the President's declaration was premature.
Everyone is getting restless in Iraq. This week, in an unusually frustrated account for a mainstream reporter, one in which he openly challenges how forthcoming the US military has been in Iraq, Newsweek's Rod Nordland reports that "...soldiers and civilians, Iraqis and foreigners, aid workers and journalists, all of us know that when it comes down to it, what’s going to happen next is just another unknowable."
Meanwhile, the President seems oblivious. Speaking to reporters during his month-long vacation at his Crawford, Texas ranch, Bush declared, “We've made a lot of progress in 100 days and we're pleased with the progress.” Just in case we didn't get the point, Bush went on to use the word “progress” six times in his remarks.
But with upwards of 55 American soldiers dead in combat after the President's photo-op declaration three months ago, not to mention the growing anger among Iraqis, his optimism rings hollow. And the point is not lost on Americans who, despite the daily drivel they are fed by Fox & Friends (i.e. CNN and MSNBC), are wondering if there's anybody home.
Today, more Americans (37%) disapprove of the job George W. Bush is doing as President than at any time since he took office, according to a study released this week by the Pew Research Center.
Paula Zahn’s smile may be worth millions, but Joe's unemployment check isn't worth much at all these days. And the reality of the struggling economy, with another holiday spending season just a few months away, speaks much louder than the comforting words of a president who isn't too well known for his mental stamina to begin with.
In fact, all the signs point to a potential political disaster for Bush.
The Pew survey shows that the President’s approval rating has already fallen back to pre-war levels, making his "war bump," the traditional boost in the polls that a US president receives during wartime, unusually small and short.
On the eve of the Iraq invasion in mid-March, Bush Jr. registered 55% approval. That rose to 74% after the "fall" of Baghdad. But now, just five months later, his approval is back down to pre-war levels--53% according to the Pew survey. Compare this with Bush Sr.’s numbers: 61% right before the start of the first Gulf War in December 1990, up to 86% at the end of the war. More importantly, it took almost a year before Bush Sr.’s numbers went back down to where they were before the start of the war.
The disconnect between the Bush Administration and the American people is clearest when it comes to domestic issues like health care. Fully two-thirds of Americans, including 50% of Republicans according to the poll, back guaranteed health care coverage for all citizens, even if it means increased taxes or a repeal of the President's recent tax cuts.
So should the President be worried enough to hasten the discovery of that dusty biological weapons canister in the back of a Tikrit warehouse? Or to magically come up with Usama's DNA? Of course, there is always the sure fire winner--war with Iran, Syria, or North Korea--heck, why not all three.
But wait; better keep that stuff for later. The President's advisers know that there is one major difference between this election and Bush Sr.’s re-election bid.
Unlike the run up to the ‘92 general election campaign, when the Democratic Party leadership began uniting around an appealing, intelligent, and--most significantly--highly focused candidate in Bill Clinton, the Democratic field today, as described by former New York Governor Mario Cuomo, is just a bunch of “babble.”
According to the Pew study, 60% of Democratic voters feel that their party is not representing their core issues well--issues like helping working people and the poor.
Sure, there are Democrats out there with strong principled positions, like Dennis Kucinich and Carol Moseley Braun, but they both have not yet shown the charisma and presence needed to capture people’s imaginations. Leaving aside Al Sharpton, who has plenty of charisma but not much else, the rest of the field--Kerry, Lieberman, Graham, Edwards, Gephardt--is a sea of bland white men without focused messages who make an empty chair look titillating.
The only exception has been Howard Dean. True, he is by no means a natural “progressive.” Unlike stereotypically liberal candidates who move further to the right as the campaign progresses, Dean was never really much of a liberal to begin with on issues such as gun control and the death penalty.
But all issue concerns aside, Dean has been the only candidate to display some measure of charisma and personality combined with at least a partially-formed message. His principled and well-publicized opposition to the President’s war in Iraq, his constant refrain of how he represents "the democratic wing of the Democratic Party," the fact that he’s not the first pick of those in the beltway--all these factors have been contributing to his increased popularity among many Democrats--according to the latest polls, he, along with John Kerry, is a front-runner among self-identified liberal and moderate Democrats.
It remains to be seen whether Dean can rise to Bill Clinton’s political prowess.
No single candidate has yet been able to truly galvanize the vast numbers of disaffected people out there. While dissatisfaction is increasing, according to the Pew study, “There is no evidence that any of the nine candidates have been able to directly tap into this unhappiness.”
It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out what’s needed to defeat Bush--someone who can clearly, simply, and inspiringly communicate the issues Americans really care about: jobs, health care, education. Focusing on those issues--instead of on a $1 Billion per week military occupation--will not only win votes and help the American people, it will also make less enemies abroad. |
