Richebacher August monthly newsletter is a true pearl
I will not print it in large blocks, but will cite some details
Q2 in the USEconomy is in recession now, yes right now
when the press & media claims we are in STRONG RECOVERY
extremely distorted if not corrupt statistical reporting
utterly absymal inept and corrupted economist group in our country
some quick details
basing info tech speeds on 1986 levels, USGovt statisticians now determine that computer processor and disk storage access speeds are 20x greater than in 1986
so they take the small $11B increase in IT spending, and call it a $270B increase !!!
USGovt stat hacks grossly understate the CPI inflation rate
I believe they understate it by about 1-2%
most people regard this as a benefit to SocSecurity payments, military pensions, judicial pensions, and govt burokrat pensions, with smaller govt payouts
but since the GDP is calculated via a strange perverse "chain weighted" method, any distortion low on CPI results in an added boost fallaciously to the GDP
recalculate the price inflation rate more correctly, and you push down the GDP rate of growth
even worse, the error is accumulative, since the chain weighting method results in compounding of errors
much like compound interest earned, this is compound GDP activity never seen
his conclusion: GDP was negative in its rate of change in Q2 (RECESSION)
the community of economists is expecting GDP rise of 4-5%
Wall Street whores are promulgating the same nonsense, to sell stocks
we will go into recession with almost no detection
and naive investors will continue to be invested in risky stocks
his confirmation is that our nation's job losses are greater than Europe's, and the EU admits sliding into recession
no economic recovery in history has seen job losses on this scale
no economic recovery in history has been accompanied by a falling currency
he expects a USDollar collapse as the truth and reality is finally recognized
some rich juicy stuff
expect the recession to gather speed downhill in 2ndHalf
mortgage refi's disappearance will be a factor
foreign capital flight will be another factor
/ jim |
