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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group

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To: Noel de Leon who wrote (111068)	8/12/2003 3:03:32 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (1) of 281500

<If Hubbert's Peak is accurate then the price of oil will rise quickly as demand rises(+65% by 2020) and supply doesn't increase.> Demand will rise. But supply can also rise. The supply of oil in the ground is effectively infinite. Yes, it's true. And that's assuming current technology and current prices. Alberta oil sands: ...known recoverable reserves of 315 billion barrels, comparable with Saudi Arabia. ...Production costs now range from about $7 to $11 a barrel, depending on the project... links in this post: Message 18876136 Now, there is a lag time. A lot of infrastructure is required, which takes years to install. Current methods use a lot of natural gas, so any big expansion from current production levels (1 million barrels/day), requires development of N. Canada gas fields. And it worsens the global warming problem. If you look at any natural resource scarcity, it resolves into a scarcity of human ingenuity.

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