Hi ep,
Well, I had a chance to look the markets over tonight, and things look like they could be quite bullish over the next week or so. Busting 9500 on the DJIA could be in the cards.
Prior to the Fed meeting today, I was seriously considering cashing in all my longs and booking whatever profits/losses I had. But the Fed has clearly signaled no rate increases for the foreseeable future, which should (somewhere along the way) calm the bond markets, which in turn should be quite bullish for stocks in general.
The big question is which stocks to play, and when? Who's going to lead the market? Tech? Not likely, as many of them are already priced for perfect performance in 2004. Retail? Possible, especially if we continue to see bullish reviews of retailers in the finance rags. Drugs? Not likely. Biotech is already overpriced in my opinion, and the pharmaceuticals (Pfizer excepted) just look "tired" to me. Financials? Scary possibilities of bad loans, risky derivatives, mortgages and refinancing going down the tubes, so I'd skip them (for now). Energy looks interesting, but what would happen if OPEC unexpectedly lowers the price of a barrel of oil? Gold and precious metals look like they might take a break here, maybe go sideways for a while. Health care is under too much pressure from investigations of a few large firms thought to maybe have cheated on Medicare somehow. Housing stocks have already had a good run, so how much more to the upside remains?
Some tough calls to make here. I've got a nest of cash on the sidelines looking for a place to make money, and interest rates on cash vehicles just aren't "safe" anymore. What to do, what to do???
KJC |
