Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) Message Board

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT)

AMAT 307.08

+2.0%

10:05 AM EST

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next

To: Return to Sender who wrote (6738)	8/13/2003 11:59:13 AM
From: BWAC	Read Replies (3) of 25522

<But without metrics like P/E's, btb, earnings estimates and the like then how do we fundamentally value a stock? Is that not necessary at all? > Beats me? You'd think some valuation based on long term cash flow would be the key. Of course then they'd extrapolate peak earnings 10 years into the future, when you can reasonable assume there will be periods of low or no earnings in the cycle <If not then do we depend on technical analysis alone to determine entry and exit points? > Seems to me to be a self fulfilling prophecy since that is what everyone is doing? Do we follow only charting methodologies? See prior comment. Do we trade only with momentum? See prior comment. <Do we buy only when a stock is 70% off its high?> Why? Its going to zero isn't it? <Do we trade by gut feel alone? > That would require tuning out a whole lot of stuff. Just color me exceptionally cynical right now. AMAT will surely double or more from here sometime before they hit peak earnings. AMAT will be cut in half or more again by the time we know what peak earnings this cycle actually are. Let me remind you. Take the 5 year period of 1998 thru 2002. AMAT average earnings (without charges) was 55 cents per year. This included the bubble and the bust. Average was 55 cents. That is approx a 35 PE right here. When AMAT hits $55 this cycle it will be a 100PE on average. When it hits $12 in this cycle it will be fairly priced and safe to buy long term. Meanwhile the sentiment and momentum pot will still be stirred based on expectations of alternately impending doom or grandious earnings into the forseeable future. (Neither of which is healthy for the average investor or reflects reality based valuations)

Report TOU Violation

Share This Post

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next