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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT)
AMAT 329.07-0.4%Feb 10 3:59 PM EST
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To: BWAC who wrote (6741)8/13/2003 2:58:51 PM
From: robert b furman  Read Replies (2) of 25522
 
Hi BWAC,

Unless of course all of the rightsizing leverages leaned out companies that have drastically reduced employee count and facilities.

Way back when Cohu was originally on track to sell 200 million annually they had multiple buildings SanDiego and Littleton Mass.

Since they haver purchesed ASE from Schlumberger and rolled Ase's Columbus operations and Littleton all into one building in Poway.

The emplyee count is well below 50% reduced and they're very cash flow positive at 30 million per quarter in revenue.

I think it is a mistake to say that with an uptick in orders the E.P.S. won't increase dramatically.

Keep in mind that at the top everybody(most people) extrapolate future earnings into the heavens and on the number multiples expand.

This is nothing new in the SCE sector.One has to be intuitive at the bottoms and tops.

The usual cycle swing is more than enough to not sweat the top 10-15% or bottom 10 - 15%.

It's a very emotional roller coaster - this time much longer in time duration (because the last top was such a powerful distribution).

Future tops should be more subtle and very hard to hit.None the less it will be a good ride.

JMHO

Bob

When the numbers confirm it - it will be too late.
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