Date: Thu Aug 14 2003 10:51
trotsky (options & futures update) ID#377387:
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recent activity ( i.e., over the past two weeks or so ) in options ( index and equity ) has seen call open interest on many of the market's darlings treck higher. this would include stalwarts such as INTC and MSFT, and the major i-nuts, YHOO, EBAY, AMZN. however, also NEM has been among the stocks showing up regularly on the 'largest call OI additions' filter.
this would suggest that the markets are unlikely to make much headway in the seasonally weak period. however, OI additions in puts close to the lower end of the recent trading range have also continued apace. so the most likely outcome is a continuation of the trading range , and neither a big rally nor a big decline seems imminent.
that said, the commercial hedger net short position in the big spoo and NDX contracts has just hit a fresh multi-month high, at 55,000 net short in the spoo and 20,000 net short ( that's huge ) in the NDX contract. this is counterbalanced by net long positions in the respective mini contracts, but i would warn ( from experience ) to attach too much significance to the action in the minis.
overall one would have to conclude when weighing the positioning data ( note that bears are pretty exuberant in Rydex, for no good reason ) that we're likely to see a trading range with a slight downward bias during the fall, at least until October expiration is out of the way. |
