Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch Message Board

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Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch

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To: lurqer who wrote (25422)	8/14/2003 1:29:59 PM
From: lurqer	Read Replies (2) of 89467

Got this from Les media.wiley.com and am still "digesting" it. It is my view that after a bubble peak (Delusion), the market falls (sometimes in a straight line ['29 to '32], and sometimes not ['66 to '74], depending on the demographic profile of the spending population) to a valuation low (Despair). It then oscillates sideways ('32 to '48, and '74 to '82) until the demographics will support the beginning of a new secular bull (the Disgust point). These ideas come from the comparing the country's demographic history with it's market history. Looking forward, this approach leads to a Despair point in '07/08, and a Disgust point in '18. Both correspond remarkably well with this articles historical analysis. To the best of my ability to discern, these two approaches are completely independent. Yet, the correlation is so good, that I'm not sure what to make of it. Stunned, but remembering there are never any guarantees. lurqer

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