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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory
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To: J. P. who wrote (363)8/14/2003 3:11:35 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu  Read Replies (1) of 110194
 
Because the talking heads are exchuberant

U.S. Economy Poised for Lift Off (Dr. Sherry Cooper, chief economist at BMO Nesbitt Burns)
Virtually everyone now expects an economic rebound in the U.S. this quarter, as the clarion cry of an impending double dip has died away. But the pessimists doubt the longevity of the rebound. Many now even point to the strength in productivity as reason for a slowdown, suggesting that businesses no longer need to increase employment to increase output. As well, they suggest the recent rise in bond yields will snuff out the nascent rebound. For some, there is no such thing as good news.
The fact is, the rise in interest rates is a result of the expected rise in nominal GDP growth. And while it undoubtedly impacts the interest-sensitive sectors of the economy, already slowing mortgage refinancing activity and new mortgage applications, it returns interest rates from levels that were only consistent with outright deflation, slow growth, and unconventional Federal Reserve intervention. The strength in productivity and the concomitant decline in unit labor costs is good news - consistent with rising corporate profitability, the unwinding of excess capacity, and the continued beat of technological innovation.
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