Semi Equipment Analysis Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 348.14

+3.2%

Jan 21 4:00 PM EST

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To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (10982)	8/14/2003 5:55:46 PM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (2) of 95748

Don, I am a long way from convinced that we have a grand recovery ahead. Valuations matter. I just read an analyst comments suggesting that Ford would have a hard time earning the $1.10 that is expected of them next year and 70 cents might be more likely. His price target for F? $8.00 What happens when investors start give cyclical companies in high technology the same kind of price multiple they give an automobile manufacturer? If investors valued high technology cyclical stock prices in the same fashion as they do F then those stock prices would be cut anywhere from 50 to 75%. BTW those automobile manufacturers pay a good sized dividend. Lets not get me started again on expensing options which will cut the average high technology companies future earnings by 25% or more. The truth is Briefing.com is a part of the media. Everyone wants to be right in the media so throw former words of caution to the wind and join the crowd in expecting a fourth quarter market rally! Why not? All it takes is someone to buy those stocks at a higher price than someone else wants to sell it. Supply and demand. Valuation be damned. If the media can hype it enough we all need to jump on board that runaway train before it climbs too far up the hill. But wait a minute... In all this talk about consolidation of the market at high levels preceding another move even higher it seems that the media has forgotten that sometimes what looks like consolidation can actually be distribution. Trains run downhill too. It seems to me that the media is making a lot of noise about a market that has gone virtually nowhere for weeks. Odds are the next major move will be down, not up, in my humble opinion, which of course could be way wrong as usual, but sometimes I get it right and remember charts don't lie. They are just subject to interpretation based on past results and future expectations. RtS

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