valutrader, thanks for the heads up and COTS
Thanks for the notice of APG.t 's forthcoming AMEX listing.
The firm nature of the miner stocks at the close on Friday in the face of weak metal prices does suggest "daboys" do want to be on board, OR we're seeing the last of the foolish public and momentum crowd buying before a decline.
There's unbridled enthusiasm in the likes of the Gold and Silver closed end fund CEF where the premium is up near 20%...New investors want positions even though the metals are declining.
Gold commercials' net short position I estimate has now risen to near 110K, again, following the rise to 102K as of Tuesday.
cftc.gov
One can see that strong pushes higher in their positions up over 100K correspond to the peaks forming the downtrend line in the GOLD price.
sharelynx.net
(visualize 110K net short and this weeks high on the yet to be update graph above.)
One of two things are about to happen....the dollar is about to rally up to 99 - 100 and the commercials will be correctly positioned again, OR the usefulness of this COT analysis will be tarnished as GOLD rallies and the commercials just get more short, or in the more unlikely event, cover. Gold going meaningfully through 366 will require fresh or persistent investment demand for the metal in the face of the Commercials determination to stop it there....and require, in my opinion, something quite fundamental to spark increased investment demand, here. That would be.a weaker dollar, not just talk about it, a falling stock market and still weaker bonds. The economic releases this week suggest the US economy is improving, faster than European, which ought to be good for stocks and the dollar, and the crash in treasuries caused by duration mismatches seems to, for the time being, run its course.
The USD - currently price is right at the 100 day or 20 week moving average which has held it during most of this decline. DMI and RSI are n't far from going positive...
stockcharts.com[h,a]wbcaynay[de][pc20!b8!f][iut!Ub14!Ll14!Lp14,3,3!Le12,26,9!Ld20!Lya7,14,28]&pref=G |
