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Gold/Mining/Energy : Precious and Base Metal Investing

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To: Little Joe who wrote (16924)8/16/2003 12:05:56 PM
From: gold$10k  Read Replies (3) of 39344
 
Little Joe,

<<The idea that we should trade with the commercials sounds great in theory, but if anyone did that during this gold bull which began at 260, they would be broke by now.>>

It was probably 3 or 4 years ago that Jims101 observed (back on Yahoo then) that my trading style was similar to that of the commercials in that I accumulated gold stocks as they got relatively cheaper and gradually sold them as they became relatively more expensive. This has worked quite well. I was up 6% for the last two years of gold's bear market despite initially losing 10% in the 1st 6 months of that period as I was figuring things out. Since the end of 2000, my PF has increased by 256%.

IMO, higher COT commercial shorts in the range of previous highs only means that a top may be approaching. If the POG breaks out of its triangle to the upside, history would suggest that the commercials would add even more shorts at the next resistance point. But if that next resistance point is $50 higher, would they actually break with tradition and cover? Only the shadow knows.

Regards,

vt
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