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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 301.15

-1.2%

Dec 31 4:00 PM EST

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To: Gottfried who wrote (11013)	8/16/2003 1:22:02 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (1) of 95657

Gottfried, thanks for updating the chart. As I suspected, the backlog was down further from the past readings. The monthly SEMI BtB is due out this coming Tuesday, 8/19, that will give us another data point. I would say I have never seen a time when there has been such tension between "hope" and "reality". The "forces" are all aligned to make this market go up - the only thing on the other side is the reality, that for the near term future, small or no increase in semi-equip business is in the offing. <Investors probably expect bookings to reverse up soon, hence the price rise. How long are they going to wait before giving up - again?> I don't know the answer to your question, but last year around this time "they folded" much easier. "They" didn't have nearly the number of "forces" gathered together on the other side telling them "how good it was going to be" in the future. There is no fooling around this time - it is now or never for the good times to roll again!:) Don

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