Cary, OK, lets look at the situation.
<When the market folded last year, the underlying cause was the fear of a "double dip" recession. That was the bear's "hope", but is wasn't "reality".>
Very true, the market anticipated something that didn't happen. Not the first time the market anticipated that something would happen that didn't, and it won't be the last.
The general consensus is gradually increasing growth.>
Hm..., if the market was wrong before, why is it necessarily right this time? Last year it thought there was going to be another recession, but got growth. This year it thinks it is going to get growth, maybe it might get recession.
<The small group of companies that are almost certain to benefit greatly from the future of technology are not overvalued.>
I can agree to some extent, but I think there is caution that needs to be exercised. Looking at the table of revenue growth for the Group that was posted recently,
Message 19205744
the results for the past few years haven't been all that good. At the bottom line, the Group revenue growth over a five year period was 19 percent, or a yearly growth rate of 4 percent. Hardly stellar performance. For the 4 stocks in the Group that are a part of the SOX, rather mediocre performance. The yearly growth rates were: AMAT, 4 percent, KLAC, 3 percent, NVLS, 9 percent and TER, -1 percent.
Don |
