Little Joe and Louis Lambrect,
I had missed Little Joe's excellent post.
LJ, here is a chart for the US dollar index:
stockcharts.com[l,a]daolyymy[df][pc13!c50!b200][vc60][ilb14!la12,26,9!lh14,3!lm12!ld20!le12,26,9
Incidentally to the $ chart, I had been thinking a few months back that an intermediate bottom in the 90 area was in the cards. Now, from an Elliott point of view, it looks even better. I see the following wave structure, confined within a down channel (important point), starting from 119 in 4/02: 1 at 104 in 7/02, , 2 at 107 in 12/02, 3 at 92 in 6/03, 4 at 98 the first of this month, and 5 at 89 (where 1=5) coming 3 months from today. Note the wave 1 about 3-1/2 months and wave 3 about 6 months, close to Fibinocci numbers. Helps pin the 3-1/2 months to 89. Alternative: 83 after 6 months (5 1/2 months from now), but that would be end January and a bad time for a stock market bottom, which I expect around the same time as a dollar bottom.
Major, intermediate stock market/dollar bottom near November options expiration?
Thoughts appreciated.
crusty |
