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Pastimes : SARS - what next?
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To: Maurice Winn who wrote (640)8/17/2003 4:51:47 PM
From: Maurice Winn  Read Replies (2) of 1070
 
Time for an update. who.int

Cumulative deaths and weekly deaths graphs:
x = 10 deaths.
Cumulative deaths
26 Feb ?
..5 Mar x
12 Mar x
19 Mar x
26 Mar xx
...2 Apr xxxxx
...9 Apr xxxxxxxxxx
.16 Apr xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
.23 Apr xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
.30 Apr xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
...7 May xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
.14 May xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
.21 May xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx[666]
.28 May xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx[745]
..4 June xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx[772]
11 June xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx[789]
18 June xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx [801]
25 June xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx [808]
....2 July xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx [812]
....9 July xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx [812]
...16 July
...23 July
...30 July
....6 Aug xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx[916]

What the heck happened there?!!! The past month has seen a big jump. Why?

Now I'm thinking we will soon reach the 1000 mark. That would imply [at 10% death rate] 84 x 10 = 840 new infections and two or three weeks to die after infection. October seems to be the start of rapid infection as winter sets in. So, the first 1000 dead should happen before Xmas. The Vancouver situation is worrying - not even waiting for winter.

On a weekly basis: Deaths for the week.
x = 10 deaths.
z = early days, fewer than 10 per week.
26 Feb z
..5 Mar z
12 Mar z
19 Mar z
26 Mar x
...2 Apr xxx
...9 Apr xxxxx
.16 Apr xxxxxx
.23 Apr xxxxxxxxx
.30 Apr xxxxxxxxxxxx
..7 May xxxxxxxxxxxxx
.14 May xxxxxxxxx
.21 May xxxxxxxx
.28 May xxxxxxxx
..4 June xxx
11 June xx
18 June x
25 June x
....2 July x [only 4]
....9 July none
.
.
.
.
.
15 August ?

From the previous report on 10 July, <With almost 200 still infected, and a 10% [or 15%] death rate, that should mean another 20 of those sick will die. But a whole week went by with none and the previous week went by with only 4. Which means there's something odd. Two weeks and only four deaths?!!>

Of those 200, there must have been a very high death rate or something. How come there has been another 100 die compared with a month ago?

Mqurice
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