The California Republicans never seem to learn. If they run away from Arnold, they will lose the election to Bustamante.
For Right, A Wrong Direction
Many in Calif. Wary Of Schwarzenegger
By Evelyn Nieves
Washington Post Staff Writer
Tuesday, August 19, 2003; Page A03
SAN FRANCISCO, Aug. 18 -- California conservatives are in a quandary. Although the front-running, media-grabbing, superstar candidate for governor is a Republican, he is not their kind.
He supports abortion rights, gay rights and gun control. If his recent statements -- and those of his economic adviser, Warren E. Buffett are any indication, he may even be against tax cuts.
So what if Arnold Schwarzenegger displays a bust of former president Ronald Reagan in his office? To conservatives, he is no Ronald Reagan. Rush Limbaugh, a Reagan fan, has been sounding the alarm on his radio talk show about Schwarzenegger's moderate views since the actor announced his intention to challenge Gov. Gray Davis (D) in the Oct. 7 recall election. "Arnold Schwarzenegger," Limbaugh said the other day, "is no conservative. Period."
Indeed, to many rock-solid conservatives, Schwarzenegger is so moderate that he might as well be a Democrat. Conservative Bill Simon, the millionaire businessman who is running again after narrowly losing to Davis in the 2002 election, has started airing radio ads calling the action movie star a "liberal."
The GOP even has three other viable choices on the recall ballot to replace Davis -- Simon; state Sen. Tom McClintock, who has positioned himself as the only conservative candidate with political experience; and Peter Ueberroth, a former commissioner of Major League Baseball. So the right flank of the Republican Party is finding itself in the kind of pickle that usually bedevils Democrats: too many choices.
"There are four great Republican candidates," said John Stoos, deputy director for the McClintock campaign, clearly delighted to count his candidate among them.
Rumors abound that the national and state Republican parties are pressuring Simon or McClintock to drop out of the race, though party spokesmen and the candidates deny them. (In any case, there is no way for the names on the official ballot to be removed before the election. Candidates who wish to drop out must tell voters simply not to vote for them.)
Conservatives could vote their consciences and pick one of the more ideologically acceptable candidates over Schwarzenegger, but such a vote would split the Republicans and likely hand the state's highest office -- should Davis be recalled -- to a Democrat, Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante.
Conservatives could also push Schwarzenegger into publicly stating his support for their key positions, such as curbing illegal immigration, and thus alienate the moderate voters who might support Schwarzenegger and provide the margin of victory in a close race.
In either case, the recall election, prodded by conservative Rep. Darrell Issa (R-Calif.) and energized by conservatives who nearly managed to defeat Davis in 2002, is giving the right considerable distress.
Nor does the latest California Field Poll help matters. It shows Bustamante ahead of Schwarzenegger by 25 percent to 22 percent, with a margin of error of 5 points. The two lead the field by far, with McClintock and Simon at 9 percent and 8 percent, respectively.
Duf Sundheim, chairman of the California Republican Party, said the election is "fluid," adding that the momentum is with the GOP. "The fact is, we've registered 13,000 new Republicans last week, the most ever in one week in the history of the California Republican Party," he said.
Mark DiCamillio, director of the nonpartisan Field Poll, said the right wing of the Republican Party has a "hefty" number of motivated voters. But he added they could make a pragmatic choice and vote for the most viable Republican -- which, at this early stage, would mean Schwarzenegger.
But at the moment, that option -- at least based on Schwarzenegger's performance -- has little appeal to conservatives.
"So far, it's been a disappointing two weeks," said Rich Lowry, editor of the conservative National Review. Last week, the magazine editorialized that Schwarzenegger had not earned conservative support, and Lowry said nothing has changed.
"Since then he's had the Buffett addition and the Buffett flap," said Lowry, referring to the controversy the investor caused when he said that the state's Proposition 13, which caps property taxes, might need to be increased. "We're sympathetic to Simon," said Lowry, adding that McClintock is also a likeable contender though perhaps a little less so.
For conservatives, Lowry said, one hope is that one of the two conservatives drops out so as not to split their constituency -- a plea heard regularly on conservative talk radio. The other hope is that Schwarzenegger articulates a clear and direct vision that endorses a no-tax pledge and reversal of the regulatory policies that some feel have driven businesses away. "Then he would earn a degree of conservative sympathy," Lowry said. "I doubt we would ever be jumping up and down for him, but it would help."
The National Review could tell its California readers not to vote for Schwarzenegger should the actor not show leadership and a strong Republican vision for the state, Lowry said. Even if it means costing the party the election, "it doesn't do the Republican Party any good to have someone who's not willing to offer an alternative to what's already in place," he said.
For Simon and McClintock, that means staying in the race until the end, their camps said. "We offer clear alternatives to celebrity sound bites," said Stoos of the McClintock campaign. "We believe one of the conservatives will come out on top."
washingtonpost.com |
